Zero emissions to make up half of all commercial vehicles by 2040

Adoption rates for zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) will reach 25% by 2030 and 50% by 2040, according to ACT Research’s newest edition of Charging Forward, its multi-client decarbonization study.

(Graph: ACT Research)

The projection is relatively low for the adoption rates from 2024-26, given that battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales of commercial vehicles are still “in their early years,” said Ann Rundle, ACT Research’s vice president of Electrification & Autonomy.

“This begins to change in 2027, in part due to the cost increases for diesels because of the increased stringency of [the] U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations,” Rundle said.

The study said regulations will be key during the earlier years of the projection, and by 2027, eight states will have joined California in adopting the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) Advanced Clean Trucks regulation, which should generate moderate growth in adoption rates.

By 2030, when ACT Research forecasts a 25% BEV adoption rate, the remaining nine states that signed the MOU to adopt CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks will have enacted those regulations.

The study is assuming the industry will have improved battery technology to negate battery-replacement costs, as well as advancements in charging infrastructure to decrease a BEV’s total cost of ownership.