ARA upgrades growth forecast for US rental

The US equipment rental industry is expected to grow by 2.8% this year to US$82.9 billion according to the American Rental Association (ARA) and its research consultant S&P Global.

The forecast represents a significant uprating on the 2.3% growth forecast by ARA in November last year. The ARA’s rental penetration index – which measures the proportion of rented equipment in active total fleets in the market – rose for the fifth year in a row to 59.5% in 2025.

The forecast was issued on the first day of The ARA Show on 2 March, and was presumably written and based on information pre-dating the start of the Iran war.

Scott Hazelton, managing director at S&P Global, said the rental industry was benefiting from growing - if uncertain - economic conditions, continued increases in rental penetration, and the expansion of specialty rentals.

The growth forecast for 2027 is 3.7% and reaching 4.2% in 2028.

“Rental equipment penetration surged to a new record in 2025, and with uncertain, but growing, economic conditions we expect further gains”, said Hazelton, as reported by Rental Management.

“Increased specialty equipment adoption also drives above average performance. This will allow rental equipment revenue to outpace market conditions with CIE [construction & industrial equipment] rental revenue up 2.5% and general tool up 4.1% on 2026. The following year is likely to be a bit stronger at 3.4% and 4.8%, respectively.”

Hazerlton added; “The U.S. is facing a period of political, financial and foreign policy uncertainty which weakens business and consumer confidence. This creates a soft investment climate and while GDP growth will be near trend in 2026 (2.3%), we anticipate below-trend performance in 2027 (1.9%).

“Residential construction is expected to contract 0.6% while non-residential construction ekes out a 0.6% gain for 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. Manufacturing output will grow just 0.3% in 2026 and 0.4% in 2027.”

ARA forecast a softer growth rate of 1.5% for Canada in 2026, which would represent a market size of US$6 billion.

Tom Doyle, ARA vice president, program development, said; “2025 was another year of growth in the rental market. Rental supports a leaner, more adaptive operating model — better aligned with user current and future needs.

“Our rental penetration model hit a new record as contractors, construction firms and other users continue to recognize the value of renting. Our 2026 forecast and the results from our quarterly member survey calls for another year of moderate growth for the equipment rental markets.”